It's over — we're officially, royally fucked
He does go into more detail, of course. Very inflammatory and harshly-worded detail, but he does so with accuracy and truth.
After a couple pages of bemoaning the collusion between powerful corporations and the government, he gets down to the heart of the crisis, writing:
The mess Cassano [AIG Financial Products division head] created had its roots in an investment boom fueled in part by a relatively new type of financial instrument called a collateralized-debt obligation. A CDO is like a box full of diced-up assets. They can be anything: mortgages, corporate loans, aircraft loans, credit-card loans, even other CDOs... The key idea behind a CDO is that there will always be at least some money in the box, regardless of how dicey the individual assets inside it are... They then convinced ratings agencies like Moody's and S&P to give that top tranche the highest AAA rating — meaning it has close to zero credit risk.... Suddenly, thanks to this financial seal of approval, banks had a way to turn their shittiest mortgages and other financial waste into investment-grade paper and sell them to institutional investors like pensions and insurance companies... What Cassano did was to transform the credit swaps that Morgan popularized into the world's largest bet on the housing boom... Cassano could sell investment banks billions in guarantees without having any single asset to back it up... Initially, at least, the revenues were enormous: AIGFP's returns went from $737 million in 1999 to $3.2 billion in 2005. Over the past seven years, the subsidiary's 400 employees were paid a total of $3.5 billion; Cassano himself pocketed at least $280 million in compensation. Everyone made their money — and then it all went to shit.
So basically, people react to incentives. Intelligent, unscrupulous bankers looked for a way to achieve higher profits, and ended up gaming the system. While they should have known that what they put in place was ultimately self-destructing, this manner of raking in the profits became all too common, involving many that didn't even realize their banks were participating in such a high-stakes game.
He continues, blasting certain members of the government for making this possible:
For years, Washington had kept a watchful eye on the nation's banks. Ever since the Great Depression, commercial banks — those that kept money on deposit for individuals and businesses — had not been allowed to double as investment banks, which raise money by issuing and selling securities. The Glass-Steagall Act, passed during the Depression, also prevented banks of any kind from getting into the insurance business... In the 10-year period beginning in 1998, financial companies spent $1.7 billion on federal campaign contributions and another $3.4 billion on lobbyists... In 1999, [Phil] Gramm [R-TX] co-sponsored a bill that repealed key aspects of the Glass-Steagall Act... The very next year, Gramm compounded the problem by writing a sweeping new law called the Commodity Futures Modernization Act that made it impossible to regulate credit swaps as either gambling or securities...
One role of the government, accepted even by many conservatives, is to proactively ensure the stability of the economy. However, virtually all Republicans and many Democrats have turned away from this practice as the lessons of the Great Depression have been forgotten and even subverted. We learned in class that a tax hits both producers and consumers, and often results in a significant dead-weight loss. This is also true of regulation. Regulation imposes constraints on companies, theoretically ensuring that they cut no corners and spend money on people to check the quality of their product. The wages given to these otherwise optional employees causes higher prices for consumers.
But both tax and regulation, properly implemented, do not result in money shoveled into a fire. Instead, they ensure the safety of the consumer, the producer, and the economy as a whole. Except President Bush named Hank Paulson the US Treasury Secretary, an executive of the financial giant Goldman Sachs. Under his supervision, money was handed out to the biggest banks in America with little stipulation as to its use, nor the imposition of regulations that would constrain further risky action. Meanwhile, the Obama administration, having named corporate crony Timothy Geithner as the Treasury Secretary, has hardly shown signs of the Change that was promised on the campaign trail.
So, one long wall of text later, a few prompts for discussion:
-What is your idea of the proper role of government in the economy? I know we have a few libertarians and Republicans here, so some diverse opinions could be interesting.
-What action should be taken now?
-Not really an econ topic, but still critical just as an aside: Assuming that you find fault with the parties outlined as responsible, what needs to change in our government, in our economy, and our society to prevent future problems.
I'm no expert on our financial system, but in my point of view, it's gotten too large and far too complicated. I think that government should impose a moratorium on all new financial "instruments" such as CDO's, until it creates a panel of experts (vetted to prevent bias, bribery, or anything else that may impinge upon their impartiality) to determine whether new instruments are deceptive or destructive in some other way.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, I feel that whenever financial institutions like AIG suddenly make such incredibly large amounts of money, a red-flag should automatically go up in our minds and in the minds of government regulators. Windfall profits, while not necessarily earned through shady methods, often prove to be, and should thus be viewed suspiciously by all parties involved.
I agree with Ryan. All of the policies and bans have gotten very confusing and frustrating. The government's role is to ensure the best possible lifestyle for everyone in the country. I think that's the only thing Democrats and Republicans have in common. Everyone has different normative beliefs, so we argue and can't get anything done.
ReplyDeleteTaxes are a strange part of our economy. If citizens must pay more because of taxes, the government should be giving that money directly back to common and public goods. Because the money is allocated to many things, taxes don't always benefit the average citizen. But part of that does. So they have their pros and cons.
My question is where were the ecconomists and journalists, who are now shouting so loudly, when this practise was started. When things are going well everyone says that they don't need the government, that they can handle things themselves. However, when the tables turn and things go bad, everyone complains that the government should have done something. How about some personal responsiblity. Sure bankers are greedy and out for themselves, but what about the people, and firms that bought the CDO's? They should have known what they were investing in, that's there job. Where were the ecconomist and public watchdogs to warn people that the banks were gambling unfairly with our money?
ReplyDeleteIn other words I don't think that we, and other blinded consumers can blame the government for a mistake we missed. Even if we want to blame the government, we have to ask who elected them.
obviously what the bankers did was due to incentives of more money, just like all things we do there is an opportunity cost. However what they did wasn't illegal but just poor on their part but they played it well and ended up with millions of dollars in their accounts. I am not sure what the government should do regarding how they should act towards the companies, some regulations must be there so they can' sell a horrible product but if it was bad people would stop paying for it so i guess we could live without regulations. Personally i back the government on having a good military. However i don't think we should be in the middle east anymore and invest those billions of dollars towards our own country and economy. After germany was sactioned after ww2, they put all their efforst on the economy and bettering themselves and now are one of the top leading countries today.
ReplyDeleteI honestly think that although the banking system is complicated, what is not is the fact that these banks used money from averages joes and sought profits so much that they ruined themselves. Being fired off of the boards should be the least of their worries, and should be tried. We need these people to be held accountable to show no matter how much power you have you are not above the law. I agree with Jared that we should get out of the Middle East, and divert that money to our own economy however the problem is that the situation is not like Germany because Germany didn't have insurgencies and also because that already were used to the ideas of democracy in the Weimar Republic.
ReplyDeleteIt's tempting to write a TON on this, since there's alot to talk about, but I'll narrow it down to a few comments. (I consider myself a moderate liberal, if that means anything).
ReplyDeleteAs far as the role the US government plays in our economy, it seems to me like the United States is like a little kid who goes out to play "Free Market" until he falls and scrapes his knee and comes back to Mom and Dad (the government) to fix it. Once he's all better, he runs out to play again.
I think to a certain point, this is the way it has to be. However, some things the government is doing is a bit much. We really can't be sure if the stimulus packages have really helped all that much. Now we have Obama's new plan to help the unemployment rate, and this may be another expensive shot in the dark.
I'm not sure we'll ever get it totally right.
A little correction to Jared's comment: American aid to Germany was extensive and the initial sanctions were quickly replaced as the United States wished for a strong ally against the Soviet Union. The Germans did indeed do a massive amount of work themselves, but were much more capable of doing so than a nation like Iraq or Afghanistan, despite the devastation of the war and the dozen years of Nazi reign.
ReplyDelete