The two staff economists that review the FRED charts believe July 2009 is the date they believe the NBER will announce as the end of the recession.
WHAT?
So for about a half a year, we have been obsessing and worrying about just a fine and dandy economy?
The unemployment parameter is still awful. Americans are still rationing their money. The dollar does not have a good value. Our nation has a lot of debt. So what does it mean that the recession is over? How can opinions about the state of our economy vary so much when these other variables are so apparent?
This is very interesting to me. I feel like, especially us michigan residents, the recession is not yet over. However, Michigan also has the worst economic state in the United States. So because of our state economy and the media dwelling on the recession and the bad thing going on in America because it makes "Good News" and gets ratings we have been hidden from the turnaround America's economy has made. From what I know my parents have been doing well in their jobs have picked up and they are seeing more business as well as my unlce who works for the chicago board and trade and recently started his own business after being a partner at his company for years. Thats a lot of risk to take on for a smart graduate of K and a person who has been studying the American economy in order to survive as a trader for almost two decades witha wife and 3 kids to start their own business in a recession. So maybe our economy isnt so bad off but who do we believe? (A & E)
ReplyDeleteGosh, this makes me wonder who to believe. I don't think that the recession is over for michiganders, our state is in pretty bad shape at the moment. Besides, I feel like this recession won't end overnight...it'll happen gradually.
ReplyDeleteI feel like as with all statistics it takes so long to analyze all the factors that by the time the data comes out to the public it is outdated. we shouldn't wait for these concrete numbers to define how we think about the economy. i think that the unemployment factor is a stronger indicator for how our country is doing. recessions are defined by the flow of money which may or maynot close out some groups of people. the unemployment rate reveals how everyone is doing.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Haney that there's a chance that things overall could possibly be improving, but don't seem to be because certain locations are still doing poorly. However, it is also true that the unemployment rate is around 10%, which is higher than it was in previous years (it was around 6% in 2005). Until unemployment starts to go down, I think the argument against recession doesn't hold much ground.
ReplyDeleteI think the people will still feel the effects of a recession even if the numbers and charts statistically say a recession is over. Most of the middle class (especially in Michigan) will still feel the effects of a recession. I think the major companies and firms might be feeling better economically, but it will take a while for the U.S. as a whole to recover from this recession.
ReplyDeleteYeah I feel that this can be pretty subjective. People are going to have different experiences depending on their job, what field they're in, how long they've been working, etc. What someone may view as the end of the recession, someone else may see as a continuation. A
ReplyDeleteI don't even think it matters if the stats technically label America's economic status as a recession. There is a stigma about the word "recession" and if people hear that word they panic. It creates a state that is similar to that of post-9/11 air travel; airport security was safer and more thorough than it had been in history after the attacks, and yet people were afraid to fly because of the attacks. So, I don't think whether or not we're in a recession is important, but rather whether not America's citizens believe that they are in a recession.
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I have heard of many complaints about the media being too pessimistic, perhaps they are just trying to be optimistic for a change/ I do see the stats and figures, however as others have said, they can be very subjective.
ReplyDeleteThe impact of the recession varies from person to person and is dependent upon the job and position that one holds, debt and salary income. Some companies and areas of discipline are eagerly seeking out employers while others are not so much. Can we really say that the recession is over? Not anytime soon. A
ReplyDeleteI have to say...sometimes media just send incorrect informantion to mislead us,which side I should believe, the economy now still bad...the unemployee problem are getting serious during this time period, what should we do,who can we trust now?
ReplyDeleteInteresting info. It prompts me to wonder about the statistics and their implications. Having an improvement in the recession doesn't mean that the average American will feel these effects right away. When economists talk about improvements in a recession are they referring to an inprovement in the country's standard of living or just the economy as a whole. Depending on how we answer this question, we will have different responses about whether or not the recession is getting better.
ReplyDeleteMany in the media have been trumpeting the recovery of the economy by some measures, such as the first one in the article or the increase in the national GDP, while explaining away unemployment and low wages in general as something that will be overcome as those at the top recover. I am rather dubious of the extent that this is true, but acknowledge that the one has preceded the other in the past. Rather than setting Wall Street back on course and calling it a day, the government should continue to invest in getting the average American back on their feet.
ReplyDeleteI also reject the argument that "It doesn't matter if we're in a recession, only that consumers think we're in a recession." If that had been termed more as, "Consumer confidence in the economy and their savings is important," I would have agreed, but the first is a rather ridiculous encouragement of doublethink. "It doesn't matter if we're in a war, only that the average person thinks we are in a war." The statement seems to lay unnecessary blame at the feet of the average American while ignoring the blatant abuses if not outright crimes of the big players in our economy.
(A, E)
The recession is not over by any means. We still have job losses and gradual inflation due to the weak dollar. Furthermore look around you on the street and see how many closed factories and buildings there are. Things like this can be said by those who obviously have some monetary security because we are still in school, so I am willing to bet if someone were to say that the economy is fine to those at the local unemployment office, a lot of laughter and resentment would ensue.
ReplyDeleteI was listening to the news and heard someone talking about how their business was a barometer for the economy and that business is picking up. On the other hand, I just heard Shea Howell speak about conditions in Detroit where 60% of adults are unemployed. I don't know what sort of numbers economists use to determine whether or not we're in a recession, but if they're the same methods of analysation that led us into this mess then I don't think I'll be paying much attention to them.
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